New here? I'm Dan. This is my weekly investing journal: where we are in the cycle, and every trade I make, after it's done. Start with the story: https://x.com/DanGraphel/status/2119777025158471859​

Years ago, I bought $SOL at $2. I sold it at $1. It went to $260. That mistake taught me one thing: read the cycle, not the candles. This journal is how I try not to make it again.

On the monthly chart, every market moves through four phases: Downtrend, Sideways, Uptrend, Distribution. Sideways is the accumulation zone. It is the quiet part where I build positions slowly, in parts.

Crypto had the longest decline of any market, while others rallied or started distributing a top. In October 2026, BTC broke above its sideways range on the monthly chart. That is why I think crypto is at the start of the uptrend phase. As of 11 Nov 2026, BTC sits at $73,000.

But a start is not a straight line. There may still be one more leg down. I could be wrong, and it could be deeper than I think. Either way, my plan doesn't change. Every month, I add a little from my salary.

Price is loud. Cycles are quiet.

I'm not married to any asset. I started in stocks, then moved to DeFi and airdrops. This cycle, my new money goes to crypto treasury companies, one core infrastructure coin, and one position with an expiry date.

$MSTR, $BMNR, $FWDI. These are crypto treasury companies: US-listed firms that hold coins on their balance sheet. MSTR (Michael Saylor) holds BTC, BMNR (Tom Lee) holds ETH, and FWDI (Kyle Samani) holds SOL. Those three coins are the backbone of the industry. The companies move harder than the coins, both ways. Because they are listed in the US, big money can enter easily.

The number I watch is mNAV: the company's market value divided by the value of the coins it holds. Above 1 means the market pays a premium. My rule: I start trimming when mNAV is above 2.5. As of 11 Nov 2026: MSTR 1.11x, BMNR 0.84x, FWDI 0.64x.

$LINK. Chainlink is core infrastructure, with real products and real value capture. It has a big ecosystem, a strong team, a loyal community, and an ETF. Last cycle, attention went to memes. This cycle, I think strong tech with a near-monopoly position may get noticed. My rule: I follow the crypto cycle and trim at profit milestones. I'm also willing to hold through a loss.

$WLD. This is the newest one, bought on 11 Nov 2026. One of Worldcoin's co-founders, Sam Altman, also runs OpenAI. My thesis is simple: buy before an OpenAI IPO, sell at the IPO. If there is no rally near the IPO, I sell anyway. My other rules follow the cycle or a number. This one follows an event.

Every thesis needs a way to be wrong. Here is mine.

One: an AI bubble bursts and drags all markets down. Two: a treasury company goes bankrupt or misuses funds, FTX-style.

The treasury model also has a weak spot. These companies use the premium to buy more coins and to pay steady interest or dividends. That works while the premium lasts.

$WLD has its own way to be wrong: no rally near the OpenAI IPO. Then I sell, as the rule says.

I'm betting these companies rise strongly before the model breaks. If it breaks first, I'm wrong, and I lose money. I'd rather say that now than later.

This journal tracks a model portfolio: real entry prices and weights, scaled amounts. Entry is my average cost. Prices as of 11 Nov 2026.

$LINK: entry $9.83 · now $10.29 · +4.7% · weight 55%

$MSTR: entry $105.50 · now $121.07 · +14.8% · weight 20%

$BMNR: entry $18.81 · now $18.08 · -3.9% · weight 13%

$FWDI: entry $6.78 · now $5.24 · -22.7% · weight 5%

$WLD: entry $0.311 · now $0.3072 · -1.2% · weight 7%

The model portfolio is +3.0% overall.

My buys before 29 Oct 2026 are rolled into one entry per asset at the average price. On 11 Nov, I made my monthly buy from my salary: more $MSTR, $BMNR and $FWDI, and a new position in $WLD. From here, every buy gets logged after it fills. If I trade, you'll read it here after the order is done, never before.

I don't buy the fall. I don't chase the run. I buy the quiet part in between.

I hold $LINK, $MSTR, $BMNR, $FWDI and $WLD. My own money, my own rules. Not financial advice.

Thanks for being here at the very start. The next issue goes deeper into the thesis behind each of these five.

If you have a question about any of them, just hit reply. I read every one.

More than just money.

Dan

My personal investing journal, shared for education and transparency. Not financial advice.